Picks in bold:
1. Thursday Night:
Bears +6 @ Packers.
Why can’t the Bears be good? Why do the Packers need to be dominant? Lotta offensive firepower, but they had the worst defense in the NFL last year. I like both the spread and the +230 moneyline.
2. Bucs + 9 @ Giants.
The computers say this is close to fair (should be 8.5, but same same). When I’m faced with two teams, neither one of which has to be all that good, I say take the points. Any of you want to make a case for the Giants?
3. Arizona + 14 @ Patriots
This is just a matter of policy, I take the underdog in this spot. This game ends 59-0 pretty frequently I agree, but I just don’t have the heart to lay 14 points in the NFL. Computer says this line should be 15 FWIW, but you get silly outcomes at the extremes. Rams would be 20 point dogs @ New England, etc… This is a no bet.
4. Vikings – 1.5 @ Colts
I know I’ve taken the points every time, but I don’t get this line. Computer says the Colts should be favored by 1.5 FWIW. Why are the Vikings better than the Colts at all, let alone home dog better? Give me the Colts moneyline at +105 to save on the vig.
5. Saints – 2.5 @ Panthers
Computer says the Saints should be 4 point favorites, but I guess that’s a coaching effect. I’m of the opinion that in this, the year of Mike Trout, anything can happen and RG3 is just awesome. Thus we shouldn’t freak too much much about the Saints loss last week. Give me the good team, rather than the one that lost to the Bucs.
6. Chiefs + 3.5 @ Bills
I don’t respect Arrowhead, or teams that play in Arrowhead. Computer says this line should be 6. I’m taking the position the Jets are actually good, rather than the Bills are huge joke. Give me the Bills, and as you’ll see, maybe there’s a correlated parlay with the Jets here? (If the Bills are still okay, then maybe that means the Jets are awesome. Those two move together).
7. Ravens + 2.5 @ Eagles.
Gimme gimme gimme. Wrong team favorite. This is like that Giants-Cowboys line a few years ago. The Ravens should be favored by 3, not 2.5 point dogs. Computer says this line is nuts too. I want everything on this game.
8. Raiders -2.5 @ Dolphins
I can’t believe the Raiders lost at home and are now road favorites. I know a lot of that was having no long snapper, but whatever. Computer says both teams stink, so just take the points, especially at home.
9. Browns + 7 @ Cincy.
Oof. I think the Browns are the pick? Betting on the team you can’t bear to root for has gotta be the right play.
10. Texans – 7 @ Jaguars
I like the Jags here. Secretly okay. Computer agrees. Says this line should be 5.
11. Cowboys – 3 @ Pistol Pete
I’ve never bet on the Seahawks so far, and I’m not about to start now. Did you know Tony Romo has a better career QB rating than Tom Brady does? That guy is great. Computer says this line should be -2 FWIW. If you believe in a major home field effect in Seattle I guess, then you should take Pete.
12. Redskins – 3 @ Rams
Computer says this line should be 7. I say the RG3 trail keeps rolling. That said, this feels like a suckers bet. This is gonna be one I stay away from. I give the Rams almost no credit for hanging with the Lions – I just think the Lions aren’t all that good.
13. Titans + 6 @ Chargers
I think this line is fair. I’ll take San Diego just cause Hasselbeck looked incredibly bad in limited snaps last week. He’ll get it together. No bet.
14. Jets + 6 @ Steelers
This is the other half of me wanting to bet the Bills. I think the Jets are good, and the Steelers may just be too banged up to deserve this much respect. If you think that Jets-Bills game was a bad team beating up on a terrible team, then bet the Steelers here.
15. Lions + 7 @ 49ers
The Lions struggles with the Rams last week were just the continuation of their mediocrity from the 2nd half of last season. 49ers are the best or second best team in football. This line should be 10.
16. Broncos + 3 @ Falcons
Computer says the Broncos are the bet here, but it’ll take me a bit longer to believe in Peyton. He looked like Chad Pennington to me on Sunday night. Falcons are the better squadron.
My favorite bets here are the obviously the Ravens, the Falcons and the 49ers, and kind of the Redskins.