Only game tonight:
1. 49ers -3.5 @ Rams and the under 42.5
I’ve mentioned before in this space that Thursday night games tend to go under. There’s not a ton of history here, but there’s enough for it to be something to go off of. On the other hand, the word may be out and Vegas may start to adjust to this as well. That said, my instinct is the under.
As for the pick, there’s a lot of factors pushing for the Rams here. First, there is a strong history of success with home dogs. 2nd, it’s a nationally televised game, which has also tended to independently favor both the home team, and the underdog. All the computer models (Massey, Sagarin, Football Outsiders) tell me to take the Rams. It seems like the data and the history is pretty clear on this point, in spite of my personal love of the 49ers (who I still think will get it together this season). That said, for now, I make picks with my head.
DEGEN takes the Rams and the Over.